November 4, 2009

Experts Warn That AIDS Will Remain a Global Crisis in 2031

Unless there is a more comprehensive response to HIV/AIDS, the epidemic will remain out of control on its 50th anniversary in 2031, according to a panel of experts reported on in The New York Times. The analysis, led by former United Nations and International AIDS Vaccine Initiative policymaker Robert Hecht, was published November 2 in the journal Health Affairs.

According to Hecht, who is an economist, by 2031 developing countries will need $35 billion annually—three times what is currently spent—to provide HIV treatment, care and support. Even in a best-case scenario, the panel estimates, there will be more than 1 million new infections annually.

The economic models assume that while condoms, antiretroviral medications and circumcision would be widely available by 2031, a microbicide and an HIV vaccine would not.

In addition, the panel predicts that growing nations such as Brazil, China, India, Mexico and Russia will be able to fund responses to their own epidemics; in contrast, many sub-Saharan African countries such as Kenya, Mozambique, Uganda and Zambia will remain dependent on outside donors.

“We are staring at the face of a huge crisis,” Hecht said.

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Previous Comments:

Karen, Lacey, 2009-11-14 23:58:51
I was infected in 1993 by a needlestick. I'm an RN. Those years were the "in between years" where people with AIDS were still dying by the thousands, AZT the only drug available and there wasn't any hope. There was no funding for anything. I was told to go home and get ready to die. It's 2009 and I am now nondetectable and healthy because I take care of myself. Even though this is still a TERRIBLE disease, I am extremely GRATEFUL! Don't give up, in 1993 there was no hope at all!

R. Derco, Boston, 2009-11-14 16:58:38
A vaccine for HIV will never be made public (I believe it already exists). HIV employees too many people and is a huge (billions) money maker for drug companys, researchers, doctors, hospitals, ect. ect. As with many other "industries" wars, cancer, and so on, just think, end it, stop it and 100s of thousands of people become unemployed. Sorry all but it's a FACT....

Alabi J.O., Warri, Nigeria, 2009-11-09 05:16:27
In the years gone by, deadly diseases like measles, small pox and other viral infections have been conquered. We can still achieve the same for HIV/AIDS. I believe we are moving towards the cure!!! For now, people should STOP RISKY LIFE EXPOSURE.

Rudy, europa, 2009-11-06 08:21:27
Why they do not take care about the cost of the chemio treatment for cancer in Africa? Not only haart is expensive.. Doc Siliciano found the way to screen the compounds that can reactivare latent integrated hiv.. black walnut is one of them like prostatin and SAHA. Reactivate dormient hiv will permit haart to reach any hiv reservoirs, and so hiv eradication will not be a dream anymore.

Ksurrina, Jamaica, 2009-11-05 16:06:23
As a HIV person this is the reason I told persons not to live for cure. Live, trust God and take your meds if you are on it. Living for cure is an illusion which leave one empty when hearing these news.

bksignature, Phoenix, 2009-11-05 14:16:30
Keep your chin up Donna, these "experts" are economic experts, not scientists researching a cure. They are responding to the money aspect, the drug that seems to feed the greed of so many who could truly help others, but only help themselves. Life does find a way though.

Alex, Denver, 2009-11-05 11:50:25
Don't give up hope, Donna. When you consider the advances made in the past decade with regards to treatment, I'm hopeful that treatments will be even better in the years to come. Researchers are even closer to HIV eradication, though there is still lots of work to be done. But, keep hope.

Donna, West Covina, 2009-11-05 01:58:19
This really hurts me. I have been hoping that there would be a cure sometime in the next 20 years or so... I just fear one day not having access to meds one day. =(