November 20, 2007

U.N. Overestimated Global AIDS Numbers

The United Nations’ UNAIDS agency reports today that the number of people living with HIV worldwide is not as high as previously believed. While the organization reported last year that 39.5 million people were currently living with the virus across the globe, new data reveals that the actual number is closer to 33.2 million (nytimes.com, 11/20).

The new statistics— obtained through more thorough surveys in India and heavily populated African nations—show that the prevalence of HIV/AIDS peaked sometime in the late 1990s, when approximately 3 million people were infected with the virus each year. Today, that number is closer to 2.5 million.

Researchers say that in addition to improved surveying methods—including detailed, randomized household surveys in India—changes in behaviors, including increases in condom use and reduction in the number of sexual partners, have contributed to the dramatic drop in numbers.  

However, experts stress that while the numbers may not be as alarming, HIV/AIDS should not receive any less attention.

“This is not a surprise,” says Dr. Daniel Halpernin, an HIV expert at the Harvard School of Public Health. “The writing was on the wall years ago. But this doesn’t mean that this epidemic is going away, everything is fine and now forget about it—not at all. There are still about 10 countries in southern Africa that are real nightmares.”

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