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Against All Odds: What Are Your Chances of Getting HIV in These Scenarios?

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The compound numbers are severe under-estimations. The advent of social media and gay dating sites have never been accounted for in these studies, except for the one we just completed (See NEJM Sept 2018). For starters if my odds of getting HIV IS 1/1000 each time i have unprotected sex, then by the conclusion of round 2, 1/1000 x 1/1000 = 1/500, after 10x, 1/50, after a few kore, 20% of people in a study group of n=1,000 will have been diagnosed w/HIV.

August 5, 2018 NYC

J Mac

Hi I have something to say. I am have had oral sex and swallowed with over 15,000 people yet still don't have the virus so why is it a 1 2,500 risk plus I have dental issues and bleeding ulcers. Second it is weird aside from genetics people in the community seem to get it less with lube even if its unprotected as long as the anal wall does not tear or there is no previous anal bleeding. Second is there any research I can give to like real research over seas?

June 8, 2018


Moral of the story. Don't have gay sex, or share needles. Pretty simple.

November 28, 2017


does anyone have info on what the risks are for one sexual experience with no ejaculation during heterosexual sex....and the man being hiv pos, but on meds for over 10 years...i know that's super specific...but does anyone have any thoughts?

November 10, 2017


There is NOT a single documented case of transmission thru oral! So, how can this article not state this FACT? Also, if a person is undetectable (which means the virus is NOT active) it is impossible to transmit it!!!!

July 11, 2017

Thaddeus Buttmunch MD

(continued) In MY Mind, the only plausible explanation for this Paradox, is the Biphasic nature of HIV/AIDS. As stated in the article, HIV+ people are exponentially more contagious in the few weeks after getting the virus. There are remarkable differences in viral load with age. A young teen may have 10*5 virions/ml where as an older victim would have 1000 times that much(!!) I believe the epidemic started by those with early AIDS (Kaposi Sarcoma) and high loads. 1981 41 KS cases lived for years

June 5, 2017

Thaddeus Buttmunch

Speaking as a Physician-Epidemics fascinate me-and not in any morbid way. There Are some things about the AIDS epidemic that don't add up: 1. It's a known fact that there were a handful of HIV+ men in NYC in the early Seventies, BUT... 2. It is Also known that as of 1980, "only" about 7% of NY Gays had HIV. However... 3. by about 1985, the vast majority (maybe 70% did.) WHY??? Before you say: "there were no tests until 1985" understand that tests have been done on preserved, stored blood...

June 4, 2017


I'm one of those super-rare men who contracted HIV orally. My partner was newly infected, with a very high viral load, and I caught it by swallowing his pre-cum. Getting my diagnosis was a shock; I'd always used condoms. But 3 years later, I'm undetectable, in good health, and grateful for modern medicine. Getting HIV sucks, undoubtedly. But at the end of the day, I'm FINE. If you're reading, please begin PrEP. An optional daily pill (which you can quit one day) is better than a mandatory one.

May 22, 2017 NYC


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