As the HIV population steadily ages, the top cancer diagnoses among those with the virus will shift over time, with prostate and lung cancer topping the list in 2030, according to a recent study. Overall, cancer incidence among the U.S. HIV population is expected to decline through the next decade.

“In order to reduce the incidence of lung cancer,” says Eric A. Engels, MD, MPH, of the Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), who was the lead author of the study, “HIV-infected people should discuss smoking cessation with their care providers and make a strong effort to quit smoking.”

Engels and his colleagues analyzed data from NCI’s HIV/AIDS Cancer Match study, modeling cancer diagnosis rates during 2000 to 2012 to make projections about how rates will change through 2030.

Between 2000 and 2012, the 463,300 HIV-positive adults in the study were diagnosed with 24,000 cancers. During this period, the annual diagnosis rates, or incidence, declined for Kaposi sarcoma (KS), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), cervical cancer, anal cancer (among men who have sex with men), lung cancer, Hodgkin lymphoma and other cancers among all age types. Colon cancer incidence decreased among those age 65 and older. Prostate cancer incidence increased among men ages 35 to 64.

Among three AIDS-defining cancers, the estimated numbers of diagnoses seen in the U.S. HIV population in 2010 and projected to occur in 2030, respectively, were: 1,490 and 450 diagnoses of NHL; 1,120 and 240 diagnoses of KS; and 120 and 30 diagnoses of cervical cancer.

As for non-AIDS-defining cancers, the respective numbers of diagnoses seen in 2010 and projected to occur in 2030 were: 830 and 1,030 diagnoses of lung cancer; 750 and 1,590 diagnoses of prostate cancer; 580 and 450 diagnoses of anal cancer; 360 and 480 diagnoses of liver cancer; 300 and 120 diagnoses of Hodgkin lymphoma; 250 and 340 diagnoses of oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer; 220 and 260 diagnoses of breast cancer; and 220 and 200 diagnoses of colon cancer.