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About 1 in 10 MSM in U.S. Have HIV
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Very fascinating estimates of numbers and wondering how many of the estimated 1 out of 10 men who have sex are HIV or 1-5 men in the big cities who have sex know they are HIV positive. For this is the question I ask, is it 25 percent do not know they are HIV, what is the truth.
I think your blog will send a very loud statement to peop;e who are struggling with this Virus. Should have wrote sooner, but came back to getting the Farmers Market up and running for another year. So, free time for myself is not something I can say I allow myself. Glad to have met you and hope your future is bright and sucessful
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Andrew
Oriol, if anything, this seems like a gross underestimate. If I'm understanding what you've done, you estimated the number of MSM by applying the CDC estimate to the entire US population, but you've failed to control for the fact that 1/4 of the population is under the age of 18, less likely to be engaged in same sex relationships, and therefore not truly a "man who has sex with men". Tweak the numbers to control for this, and the percentage swells considerably. Look at overall lifetime liklihood of infection, and its got to be staggering. I think anyone who has been honest with the 1/5 study has to admit that if anything, it is an UNDERESTIMATE, not an overestimate, of the rate of infection. It can only be an overestimate if you truly believe that the 59% of guys approached who refused to get tested weren't any more likely to be poz, that it doesn't seem odd that the rate of gay infection in DC is barely higher than the national average, and the rate of infection in Atlanta is a mere 6% of men surveyed. I think that part of the problem poz MSM face from stigma, and seronegative gay men face in prevention, is a gross underestimate in the percentage of gay men who are infected. It has become "someone else's disease", so its not a real issue that we have or are likely to face. One in ten is definitely a small number, and a number far to easy to dismiss as "someone else's problem".
August 28, 2011