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Christopher

I read this article when it appeared in the Times yesterday and I have to admit I really do not understand it. About 8,000 people got a vaccine, and 51 of them went on to become HIV+. About 8,000 people got a placebo, and 74 of them went on to become HIV+. The important question, it seems to me, is not: how many people in each group became HIV+; we simply do not know how many would have become HIV+ anyway. The important question is--how many people in each group engaged in high-risk behavior yet did not become HIV+? An answer to that question would be great! Also, these numbers seem to me to be too small to be meaningful: when you say "31% difference" it sounds huge, but when you say "51 people in one group, 74 people in another" it sounds nugatory. It means, perhaps there are 23 people who do not have HIV today because of the vaccine; but there are 51 people who have HIV despite the vaccine. Obviously, I am not trying to be pessimistic here; as someone with HIV I'm looking for every shred of hope I can get. I'm just asking how meaningful these study results are.

September 24, 2009